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The second area I want to focus on is what we know we do not know. In other words, the unc
Clearly, we do not know exactly how numerous industries will evolve. And it is a lack of advanced knowledge that is prompting much speculation. In the area of financial services for example, some predict that many of China's domestic banks will have a limited life span once the market is fully opened up in five years time. //
Personally, I do not share this view. I think they will be very strong competitors, partly because they are in the advantageous position of knowing the marketplace, partly because they have national networks that are impossible—not to mention impractical—to match. And partly because they have a strong base of customers and are becoming increasingly modern Consider the mainland's largest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. It recently announced that it has more than l0,000 corporations and 1.8 million individuals using its online banking services. But the main reason I think domestic banks in China will be strong competitors: they are very fast learners. //
Another thing we know we do not know—and this specifically relates to Hong Kong-is the indirect benefits that will flow from a more open market in China. For example, if mainland investors are allowed to invest their foreign exchange holdings in Hong Kong, the SAR's stock market would clearly benefit. Hong Kong's position as a fund raising centre for mainland companies would also be enhanced. We know this idea is under consideration. We also know we do not know when it may happen. //
Likewise, we know that if banks in Hong Kong are permitted to accept RMB deposits, the SAR's status as an international financial centre and as the premier regional financial centre will be enhanced even further. Once again we know this idea is being considered, but we do not know when it may happen. //
Finally, we know that we do not know how China will change the WTO. What role will the country play in shaping future trade talks？ Will China's presence prompt other members to address the concerns of developing nations more readily？ And how will another large player at the table affect overall group dynamics？//
One thing that is clear: the WTO is much more of a global body now than it was prior to China's entry. Simply put, no organization can rightly call itself global if it does not include the world's most populous nation. //
(Excerpts from "China and the WTO: the 15-year Itch" by Mr. David Eldon, Chairman of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, at Hong Kong Association of New York breakfast meeting on April 25, 2002)
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