1992年9月，英国允许英镑开始浮动的前夕，欧洲货币体系汇率机制（ERM)正承受着巨大的投机性压力，对此，伦敦的新

1992年9月，英国允许英镑开始浮动的前夕，欧洲货币体系汇率机制(ERM)正承受着巨大的投机性压力，对此，伦敦的新闻周刊《经济学家》(Economist)发表了下述评论(参见“Crisis？ What Crisis？” Economist，August29,1992.P.51)：

英国政府的批评者希望降低利率，并且认为如果英国使英镑贬值，甚至在必要时退出：ERM，那么这个目的便可达到。但是，这是错误的，离开ERM只能导致利率立即上升，而不是下降，这是因为英国经济将失去由于它加入ERM获得的信誉。两年前，英国政府债券的利率比德国的高3个百分点，但今天这个差距已缩小到0.5个百分点；这说明投资者相信英国的通货膨胀率会逐渐降低，并且是永久性地降低。

a．为什么英国政府的批评者认为，英镑脱离ERM会使其国内利率降低(该文章发表时，英国正处在严重的经济衰退中)？

b．为什么《经济学家》周刊认为，英国脱离ERM后，会出现与a中意见相反的情况？

c．ERM是怎样为英国的政策制定者带来信誉的？(英国于1990年10月加入ERM。)

d．为什么当英国的名义利率相对于德国的较高时，就预示着英国未来的通货膨胀较高？你能否想出其他解释？

e．(假定在写作本书时，英国利率略高于德国利率)除了“相信英国的通货膨胀率会逐渐降低，并且是永久性地降低”的原因以外，请再给出两个原因。

During the speculative pressure on the EMS exchange rate mechanism (ERM) shortly before Britain allowed the pound to float in September 1992，the Economist，a London weekly news magazine，opined as follows：

The(British)government's critics want lower interest rates，and think this would be possible if Britain devalued sterling，leaving the ERM if necessary．They are wrong．Quitting the ERM would soon lead to higher，not lower，interest rates，as British economic management lost the degree of credibility already won through ERM membership．Two years ago British government bonds yielded three percentage points more than German ones．Today the gap is half a point，reflecting investors' belief that British inflation is on its way down-permanently．(See“Crisis？ What Crisis？”Economist，August29,1992,P.51． )

a．Why might the British government's critics have thought it possible to lower interest rates after taking sterling out of the ERM？ (Britain was in a deep recession at the time the article appeared．)

b．Why did the Economist think the opposite would occur soon after Britain exited the ERM？

c．In what way might ERM membership have gained credibility for British policy--makers？ (Britain entered the ERM in October 1990．)

d．Why would a high level of British nominal interest rates relative to German rates have suggested an expectation of high future British inflation？ Can you think of other explanations？

e．Suggest two reasons why British interest rates might have been somewhat higher than German rates at the time of writing，despite the alleged“belief that British inflation is on its way down--permanently．”