Britain's undeclared general election campaign has already seen the politicians trading nu
mbers as boxers trade punches. There is nothing new in such statistical slanging matches(相互谩骂). What is new is an underestimation of worry about what has been happening to official statistics under the Labour government.
One of the most important figures for Gordon Brown when presenting his pre-election budget on March 16th was the current-budget balance. This is the gap between current revenues and current spending. It matters to the chancellor of the exchequer(财政部长) because he is committed to meeting his own "golden rule" of borrowing only to invest, so he has to ensure that the current budget is in balance or surplus over the economic cycle.
Mr. Brown told MPs that he would meet the golden rule for the current cycle with & 6 billion ($11.4 billion) to spare—a respectable-sounding margin, though much less than in the past. However, the margin would have been halved but for an obscure technical change announced in February by the Office for National Statistics to the figures for road maintenance of major highways. The ONS said that the revision was necessary because it had been double-counting this spending within the current budget.
If this were an isolated incident, then it might be disregarded. But it is not the first time that the ONS has made decisions that appear rather convenient for the government. Mr. Brown aims to meet another fiscal rule, namely to keep pubic net debt below 40% of GDP, again over the economic cycle. At present he is meeting it but his comfort room would be reduced if the & 21 billion borrowings of Network Rail were included as part of public debt. They are not thanks to a controversial decision by the ONS to classify the rail-infrastructure corporation within the private sector, even though the National Audit Office, Parliament's watchdog, said its borrowings were in fact government liabilities.
This makes it particularly worrying that the official figures can show one thing, whereas the public experiences another. One of the highest-profile targets for the NHS is that no patient should spend more than four hours in a hospital accident and emergency department. Government figures show that by mid-2004, the target was being met for 96% of patients. But according to a survey of 55,000 patients by the Healthcare Commission, an independent body, only 77% of patients said they stayed no more than four hours in A&E.
One way to help restore public confidence in official statistics would be to make the ONS independent, as the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have suggested. Another would be for the National Audit Office to assess how the government has been performing against targets, as the Public Administration Committee has recommended.
It can be inferred from the first paragraph that
A．the British politicians are often compared to boxers by the people.
B．it is a common practice that the government plays with figures.
C．people often overestimate the credibility of official statistics.
D．the Labor government usually underestimate its official figures.
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